Iain Watson: Burnham faces crucial choice for chancellor as battle for No 11 continues

Andy Burnham faces the most consequential decision of his premiership as the battle for the Treasury enters its final phase, with the choice of Chancellor likely to define the character of his government and the direction of his economic policy.

The contest has narrowed to two candidates, each representing a distinct vision of what a Burnham government should be. On one side is the current Chief Secretary to the Treasury, a fiscal conservative who has argued that the government's first responsibility is to restore the public finances to health and that tax cuts must be earned before they can be delivered. On the other is the Business Secretary, who has argued that investment in infrastructure, green energy and social housing must take priority and that the fiscal rules should be reformed to allow that investment to proceed.

Burnham's instinct, those who know him say, is to favour the investment argument. His political identity was forged in the aftermath of the financial crisis, when he watched a Conservative-led government impose austerity on communities that had not caused the crash and could not bear the consequences. He has spoken repeatedly about the need for a "new settlement" between the state and the regions, and that settlement will require money.

But the fiscal context is unforgiving. The national debt is at its highest level since the 1960s. Interest payments on that debt are consuming an increasing share of public spending. The financial markets, which have been patient with the new government, will not remain so indefinitely. The choice of Chancellor is, in significant part, a choice about how to navigate that tension.

The decision is expected within days. It will be the first major test of Burnham's judgment as Prime Minister, and it will set the direction of his government for years to come.