UK Immigration: Net Migration Hit 745,000 Despite Brexit Promises — Here's Why

On 23 June 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union. The Leave campaign's central promise was to "take back control of our borders" and reduce immigration. Eight years later, net migration has hit record highs: 745,000 in 2022, 672,000 in 2023 — far higher than any year during EU membership (peak was 331,000 in 2015).

This is not a failure of Brexit. It is a deliberate choice by the UK government. Brexit ended EU free movement (200,000 per year), but the government replaced it with a points-based system that allows more non-EU immigration (700,000 per year from India, Nigeria, Pakistan, China). The government could have set the points threshold high (restricting immigration), but it set it low (allowing immigration) because businesses need workers (NHS, care, hospitality, agriculture), universities need international students (£10 billion revenue), and the economy needs growth (population growth drives GDP growth).

The result is a political crisis: Leave voters wanted less immigration, but got more. The public wants immigration below 100,000 per year, but the economy needs 200,000+ workers annually. The government has tightened rules (banned care workers bringing families, raised salary threshold to £38,700), reducing net migration to an estimated 350,000 in 2024 — still 3x higher than the public wants. Here's why immigration rose after Brexit, who's coming, and whether it will ever fall.

The Numbers

Net migration: 745,000 (2022), 672,000 (2023)

Net migration = immigrants minus emigrants

• 2022: 1,200,000 immigrants, 455,000 emigrants = 745,000 net
• 2023: 1,180,000 immigrants, 508,000 emigrants = 672,000 net
• 2024 (estimate): 850,000 immigrants, 500,000 emigrants = 350,000 net

Historical comparison:

• 2015 (pre-Brexit peak): 331,000 net
• 2010: 256,000 net
• 1990s: 50,000-100,000 net per year

Net migration in 2022-23 was 2-3x higher than any year during EU membership.

Who's coming?

By reason (2023):

• Study: 485,000 (41% of total)
• Work: 423,000 (36%)
• Humanitarian (Ukraine, Hong Kong, Afghanistan): 200,000 (17%)
• Family: 72,000 (6%)

By country (2023):

• India: 250,000
• Nigeria: 141,000
• China: 116,000
• Pakistan: 110,000
• Ukraine: 89,000
• Hong Kong: 45,000
• EU: 50,000 (down from 200,000 pre-Brexit)

EU immigration has fallen (from 200,000 per year to 50,000), but non-EU immigration has risen (from 250,000 per year to 700,000).

Work visas: 423,000 (2023)

By sector:

• Health and care: 120,000 (nurses, care workers, doctors)
• Hospitality: 50,000 (chefs, waiters, hotel staff)
• IT: 40,000 (software engineers, data analysts)
• Education: 30,000 (teachers, university lecturers)
• Engineering: 25,000
• Agriculture: 20,000 (seasonal workers)
• Other: 138,000

By visa type:

• Skilled Worker visa: 286,000 (requires job offer, salary £38,700+, skill level RQF3+)
• Health and Care visa: 120,000 (lower salary threshold £23,000, for NHS/care workers)
• Seasonal Worker visa: 17,000 (agriculture, 6-month visa)

Student visas: 485,000 (2023)

485,000 international students came to the UK in 2023:

• China: 116,000 (24%)
• India: 139,000 (29%)
• Nigeria: 65,000 (13%)
• Pakistan: 28,000 (6%)
• Other: 137,000 (28%)

Why so many?

• Universities need revenue: International students pay £20,000-£40,000 per year (vs £9,250 for UK students), generating £10 billion revenue for universities
• Students can bring families: Until 2024, international students could bring spouses and children (adding 150,000 dependents per year)
• Students can work: International students can work 20 hours per week during term, full-time during holidays
• Post-study work visa: International students can stay 2 years after graduation to work (3 years for PhD)

Government has tightened rules (2024):

• Banned students bringing families (except PhD students)
• Banned low-quality universities from recruiting international students
• Raised English language requirements

Result: Student visas are expected to fall to 350,000 in 2024 (down from 485,000 in 2023).

Humanitarian visas: 200,000 (2023)

200,000 people came to the UK on humanitarian visas (2023):

• Ukraine: 89,000 (Homes for Ukraine scheme, unlimited visas for Ukrainians fleeing war)
• Hong Kong: 45,000 (BNO visa, for Hong Kong residents fleeing Chinese crackdown)
• Afghanistan: 20,000 (resettlement scheme for Afghans who worked with UK military)
• Syria/other: 46,000 (refugees, asylum seekers)

These are temporary spikes (Ukraine war, Hong Kong crackdown) and are expected to fall to 50,000-100,000 per year by 2025.

Why Did Immigration Rise After Brexit?

1. Government chose to allow it

Brexit gave the UK control over immigration, but the government chose high immigration because:

• Businesses need workers: NHS needs 50,000 foreign workers per year, care sector 80,000, hospitality 30,000, agriculture 20,000
• Universities need revenue: International students pay £20,000-£40,000 per year, generating £10 billion revenue
• Economy needs growth: Population growth drives GDP growth (more workers = more output = more tax revenue)

The government could have set the points threshold high (restricting immigration), but it set it low (allowing immigration).

2. Points-based system allows more immigration than EU free movement

The points-based system (introduced 2021) replaced EU free movement. To get a work visa, you need 70 points:

• Job offer: 20 points
• Skill level RQF3+ (A-level equivalent): 20 points
• English language: 10 points
• Salary £38,700+: 20 points

Why does this allow more immigration than EU free movement?

• No cap on numbers: EU free movement had no cap, but in practice only 200,000 EU citizens moved to the UK per year. The points-based system has no cap and allows 700,000 per year.
• Lower salary threshold: The salary threshold is £38,700 (vs £50,000 originally proposed), making it easy for employers to sponsor visas.
• Shortage occupations: Nurses, care workers, engineers, and other shortage occupations have a lower salary threshold (£23,000), making it very easy to recruit from abroad.

3. International students bring families

Until 2024, international students could bring spouses and children, adding 150,000 dependents per year. This has now been banned (except for PhD students), reducing student immigration.

4. Humanitarian schemes (Ukraine, Hong Kong)

The UK has admitted 200,000 people on humanitarian schemes (Ukraine, Hong Kong, Afghanistan) since 2022. These are temporary spikes and will fall to 50,000-100,000 per year by 2025.

What Is the Government Doing?

The government has tightened immigration rules (2024) to reduce net migration:

1. Banned care workers bringing families

Care workers (120,000 per year) could previously bring spouses and children. This has been banned (2024), reducing care worker immigration by 50% (to 60,000 per year).

2. Raised salary threshold to £38,700

The salary threshold for Skilled Worker visas has been raised from £26,200 to £38,700 (2024), making it harder for employers to sponsor visas.

Exception: Shortage occupations (nurses, engineers, teachers) still have a lower threshold (£23,000).

3. Banned students bringing families

International students could previously bring spouses and children (adding 150,000 dependents per year). This has been banned (2024), except for PhD students.

4. Banned low-quality universities

Low-quality universities (with high dropout rates, low graduate employment) have been banned from recruiting international students (2024).

Result

Net migration is expected to fall to 350,000 in 2024 (down from 672,000 in 2023) — still 3x higher than the public wants (100,000).

Will Immigration Ever Fall Below 100,000?

Unlikely.

The UK economy needs 200,000+ immigrants per year to fill labour shortages:

• NHS: 50,000 foreign workers per year (nurses, doctors, care workers)
• Care sector: 80,000 foreign workers per year (care workers)
• Hospitality: 30,000 foreign workers per year (chefs, waiters, hotel staff)
• Agriculture: 20,000 foreign workers per year (seasonal workers)
• Other: 20,000 (IT, engineering, education)

Total: 200,000 work visas per year (minimum)

Plus:

• International students: 350,000 per year (down from 485,000, but still high because universities need revenue)
• Humanitarian schemes: 50,000-100,000 per year (Ukraine, Hong Kong, Afghanistan, Syria)
• Family visas: 50,000 per year (spouses, children of UK citizens)

Total: 650,000-700,000 immigrants per year

Minus:

• Emigrants: 500,000 per year (UK citizens leaving, foreign students/workers returning home)

Net migration: 150,000-200,000 per year (long-term average)

To cut net migration below 100,000 would require:

• Banning international students (economic suicide for universities)
• Banning foreign NHS/care workers (health system collapse)
• Ending humanitarian schemes (political suicide)

No government will do this.

Public Opinion

Polls show:

• 60% think immigration is too high
• Public wants net migration: 100,000 per year or less
• Economy needs: 200,000+ per year

This is an impossible political dilemma: the public wants low immigration, but the economy needs high immigration.

Result: Politicians promise to reduce immigration (to win votes), but then allow high immigration (to keep the economy running). This has been true for 20 years (under Labour and Conservative governments) and will continue.

The Bottom Line

Net migration hit record 745,000 in 2022 (672,000 in 2023) despite Brexit promises to reduce immigration. Brexit ended EU free movement (200,000 per year), but the government replaced it with a points-based system that allows more non-EU immigration (700,000 per year from India, Nigeria, Pakistan, China). The government chose high immigration because businesses need workers (NHS, care, hospitality, agriculture), universities need international students (£10 billion revenue), and the economy needs growth.

The government has tightened rules (banned care workers bringing families, raised salary threshold to £38,700, banned students bringing families), reducing net migration to an estimated 350,000 in 2024 — still 3x higher than the public wants (100,000). The UK economy needs 200,000+ immigrants per year to fill labour shortages, making it impossible to cut immigration below 100,000 without economic damage.

The result is a permanent political crisis: Leave voters wanted less immigration, but got more. Politicians promise to reduce immigration, but then allow high immigration to keep the economy running. This has been true for 20 years and will continue. Expect net migration to stabilize at 200,000-300,000 per year — lower than 2022-23 peak (745,000) but higher than the public wants (100,000). Brexit gave the UK control over immigration, but the government chose high immigration because the economy needs it.